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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany Increases

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SOURCE The Conference Board

BRUSSELS, July 22, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany increased 0.3 percent in May to 110.4 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in April and no change in March.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, fell 0.2 percent in May to 108.2 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent decrease in April, and a 0.1 percent increase in March.

The LEI for Germany has been trending upward since the end of 2012, and as a result its six-month growth rate has improved compared to six months ago. The CEI, however, has declined slightly in the last two months, but its six-month growth rate remains the same as six months ago. Despite the marginal declines in the CEI, taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the current economic expansion should continue into the second half of 2014.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Germany include:

New Orders, Investment Goods
Yield Spread cumulated, 10 year minus 3 month
Change in Inventories
Gross Enterprise and Property Income
Stock Prices
New Orders, Residential Construction
Consumer Confidence Index

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

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For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=4

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

 

Summary Table of Composite Indexes


2014

6-month


Mar


Apr


May


Nov to May










Leading Economic Index (LEI)

109.9

p

110.1

p

110.4

p



     Percent Change

0.0

p

0.2

p

0.3

p

2.1

p

     Diffusion

57.1


85.7


92.9


100.0











Coincident Economic Index (CEI)

108.5


108.4

r

108.2




     Percent Change

0.1


-0.1

r

-0.2


0.4


     Diffusion

75.0


50.0


12.5


50.0











n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised









Indexes equal 100 in 2004









Source: The Conference Board

All Rights Reserved


 

©2012 PR Newswire. All Rights Reserved.

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