First Alert Forecast: A ridge of high pressure builds, leaving us dry and hot

First Alert Forecast: A ridge of high pressure builds, leaving us dry and hot
Hot, humid and dry conditions on tap for the beginning of the work week.

LAWTON, Okla. (TNN) - We’ll end Sunday mostly dry but a few passing storms can’t be ruled out.

Im going to be honest, this evening’s forecast is a bit tricky. We have an airmass that is moving into OK that potentially could limit our shot at seeing another round of storms. This morning, our short term models were showing some severe thunderstorms moving through our area between 5pm and midnight tonight. Over the day, it seemed that the recipe for these storms was altered. The atmosphere is a bit too stable for any severe storms to happen. So when the atmosphere is too stable, it blocks off any circulation in the upper layers of the atmosphere. This circulation is what this helps generate the convective (severe) storms.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) still has parts of Texoma under a marginal risk for tonight for severe storms. Meaning, if we do see some rain chances tonight, we could see something very similar to what we saw last night. Winds gusting up to 70mph, quarter sized hail and heavy downpours. While I can’t rule rain 100% out of the forecast tonight, I’m going to leave a 20% chance heading through this evening. Temperatures will gradually decrease into the mid 70s by 7AM, with a south wind gusting at 5-10mph all night.

A ridge of high pressure is starting to build into our area behind this airmass. We’ll see hot, humid and dry conditions for Monday and Tuesday. Both days, highs will be nearing 104° and 103°, respectively. That trend continues into Wednesday with highs near 100°. We’ll see some displacement to this ridge midweek. With this, rain chances will increase and temperatures will cool into the mid and upper 90s for the remainder of the week.

Have a great night!

-First Alert Meteorologist Lexie Walker

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