First Alert Forecast (4/30AM)

First Alert 7 Forecast

LAWTON, Okla. (TNN) -

I have a bone to pick with Mother Nature. So the saying goes, April Showers bring May flowers. Well today’s the last day of the month so no more showers going forward right??? Wrong. We’re looking at hit or miss showers and storms throughout this weekend and most of early next week.

A cut-off upper low will continue to spin in place across portions of far west for today, and will also continue to transport fairly strong moisture within the atmosphere. An ample low- level jet across much of northern Texas will allow for precipitation chances across western north Texas into southwest Oklahoma through late morning after which the low-level jet is expected to weaken. The good news, is that whatever does fall from the sky today, it will be just light rain due to a stable environment.

A few models are showing peaks of sunshine for counties closer north of the Red River but more cloud cover for north Texas counties. This will impact temperatures slightly but regardless of sun or clouds, temperatures in some form will be into the 70s. By late this evening through tonight, the cut-off low starts to lift slightly northward across far western Texas. Precipitation chances return across our southwest as a more south to north orientated low- level strengthens again. The slight shifting of the cut-off low could bring in some cooler air aloft and steepen mid-level lapse rates and mid-level instability possible, cannot rule out a few elevated thunderstorms developing across overnight across western north Texas, with the instability lifting into southern Oklahoma toward sunrise Saturday.

The upper-level cutoff low that caused the wet weather of the past couple of days has drifted over the state of Mexico. It is expected to remain there until Saturday night, when it begins to move northeast to join with the Westerlies winds. As it moves across Texas Saturday night and Sunday, rain chances will pivot from southern Oklahoma/north Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma. While the weekend does have lingering rain chances, we’re not looking at a wash out. Temperatures tomorrow will rise into the mid 70s with upper 70s by Sunday.

A wave of energy combined with a surface low over Oklahoma or north Texas, will bring a chance for more substantial convection Monday afternoon into Monday night. There appear to be capping issues, but we will have to see how that works out as more-detailed information becomes available.

Have a good day and a better weekend!

-First Alert Meteorologist Lexie Walker

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