First Alert Forecast (5/8PM)
LAWTON, Okla. (TNN) -
Wow! What an absolute beautiful (but warm) day it’s been. So far this afternoon we have temperatures in the 80s and 90s with mostly sunny skies. Winds have been a bit breezy with gusts into 30s but I think these south winds have helped cut down the warm weather just a bit. Expect south winds 15 to 25mph for the rest of this evening then turning towards the north by morning.
Now let’s talk rain/ storms. There’s a very strong cap in place that as of early this afternoon, looks to stop/limit any and all rain/ thunderstorm activity. I’m expecting most if not all will stay dry but there are some complications with the forecast. As a dryline moves into the western part of the area any moment now, this could bring the potential for strong to severe storms developing into the area. The primary hazards will be large hail and damaging winds but organization may be lacking in the higher levels of the atmosphere. The cap looks strong and here is a very low chance that a storm or two might develop near the dryline this afternoon and evening. As mentioned they could be on the severe side and if they do, there is a risk that they would become severe with hail up to the size of golf balls and wind gusts up to 65 mph. We are monitoring this very closely. If storms to bubble up, they will in a moments notice.
Otherwise, a few storms may develop along a cold front that will move across the area tonight. A few of these storms may become strong to severe as well but the threat for this round looks to stay east of our area mainly into central and southern Oklahoma. A strong cold front will dive into the area overnight and stall. Higher thunderstorm chances and really overall rain chances are expected throughout the day tomorrow along this stalled cold front. Due to the front, temperatures tomorrow afternoon will drop into the 70s with north to northeast winds at 10 to 20mph.
By early next week temperatures will drop considerably and our chances for rain goes up. Monday will start off with clearer skies and temperatures in the low 50s. During the day on Monday, weak thunderstorms and cloud cover will hold. Not much rainfall is expected and are yielding generally low amounts. Highs will drop into the mid 60s. Northeast winds at 10 to 15mph.
Monday night and especially into Tuesday will see an increase in precipitation coverage across most of the area. Some thunderstorms are likely but instability is low and storms will be limited. We’re mainly looking at scattered to widespread rain. Highs on Tuesday will fall even more into the upper 50s and low 60s. This is nearly 15 degrees below mid May normal temperatures. Northeast winds at 10 to 15mph.
Precipitation will come to an end by Wednesday and following in it’s wake will be a ridge building across the Southern Plains. Meaning warmer temperatures by mid to late next week. By Thursday we’re back into the 70s then in the 80s for Friday and next weekend.
Have a good Saturday night and a great Mother’s Day!
-First Alert Meteorologist Lexie Walker
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