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Breakdown of the severe weather potential over the next several days

Widespread rain totals ranging anywhere from 3-6 inches through next week
Published: May. 15, 2021 at 8:52 PM CDT
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LAWTON, Okla. (TNN) -

We are now entering our active weather pattern that will remain in place for the foreseeable future. A line of strong-to-severe storms will approach Texoma later this evening with storms gradually weakening as they move into southwest Oklahoma and northwest Texas. The main threats with tonight’s storms will be large hail up to the size of quarters and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph.

Saturday Night Futuretrack
Saturday Night Futuretrack(KSWO)

On Sunday morning, convection occurs and storms fire up along old outflow boundaries from Saturday evenings storms. The coverage of showers and storms will increase with the potential for isolated strong storms anywhere from 5:00 a.m. - 12:00 pm. There will be peaks of sunshine during the afternoon destabilizing the atmosphere, highs will top out in the mid 70s, along with an abundance of low level moisture as dew points will be in the mid 60s.

Sunday Daybreak Futuretrack
Sunday Daybreak Futuretrack(KSWO)
Severe Weather Outlook Sunday
Severe Weather Outlook Sunday(KSWO)

Another upper-level disturbance will approach Texoma late Sunday night and into Monday morning allowing for a cluster of strong-to-severe storms to move west-to-east and into our area. At the moment, models are not in agreement on when storms will begin to weaken across our area during that time frame. Our in house computer model suggests a time frame between (9:00 p.m. - 3:00 a.m.).

Sunday Night Futuretrack
Sunday Night Futuretrack(KSWO)

Another round of strong-to-severe storms will develop along and east of the dry line Monday morning and move into Texoma during the late morning and early afternoon hours (9:00 a.m. - 1:00 p.m.). A deepening trough and the upper-level low will initiate another round of storms moving across the area from west-to-east. This is subject to modifications as new model data becomes available. The main threats for severe storms with this disturbance will be hail up to the size of golf balls, damaging wind gusts up to 60-80 mph, a low but non-zero tornado threat, and minor street flooding is possible.

Severe Weather Outlook Monday
Severe Weather Outlook Monday(KSWO)
Monday Late Morning Futuretrack
Monday Late Morning Futuretrack(KSWO)
Storm Threats
Storm Threats(KSWO)

The chance for severe storms will stay with us through all of next week. Over the next couple of days as storms fall apart downburst wind gusts up to 60-70 mph could be possible. Flooding will be the main concern for areas that will have seen multiple rounds of showers and storms by that time. Rainfall amounts will range anywhere from 3-6′' with isolated higher amounts.

Euro Rainfall Estimates
Euro Rainfall Estimates(KSWO)
Severe Storm Chances
Severe Storm Chances(KSWO)

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