Nicholas to make landfall in Texas overnight

What we could be seeing here in Texoma and along the Gulf coast
Published: Sep. 13, 2021 at 5:50 PM CDT
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LAWTON, Okla. (KSWO) -

Nicholas is likely to make landfall close to midnight into Wednesday morning, however the rain bands are already starting to lash the Texas Gulf Coast. While we are far inland, parts of Texoma could rain from some of the outer bands even as the center of circulation is around 500 miles to the southeast.

nicholas distance
nicholas distance(KSWO)

Texoma Impacts

- Isolated showers Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning (from a line from Graham to Bowie, and southeastward).

- Brief gusty winds

- Embedded heavy rain possible for those who see rain, however rain accumulations appear to stay less than a tenth of an inch, so don’t expect a washout.

- Elsewhere, dry air will prevent rain from falling across much of Texoma. A majority of the rainfall that Texoma will see over the next few days will actually come from a cold front moving across the central and southern plains as opposed to Nicholas.

texoma rainfall
texoma rainfall(KSWO)

Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast Impacts

Nicholas will be more of a rainmaker than anything across parts of Texas and Louisiana within the next 48 hours. Areas along the Gulf Coast could see up to 8-12 inches
(isolated 16 inches) as the storm slows down along the immediate coast. Areas as far inland as the Ark-La-Tex region could see close to an inch of rainfall. Significant downpours could result in flash flooding across areas that receive the heaviest rainfalls, especially in urbanized areas along the Texas/Louisiana Gulf coast.

nicholas rainfall
nicholas rainfall(KSWO)

Life threatening storm surge is a danger for much of the Texas Gulf Coast, from Port Aransas to the Texas/Louisiana border. Up to a foot of storm surge is expected across most of the Texas/Louisiana coast, but a few areas could see between 3-9 feet.

nicholas storm surge
nicholas storm surge(KSWO)

Tropical storm force winds are expected along the Gulf Coast, as Nicholas currently has sustained winds of 60 mph. However, it is expected to strengthen close to hurricane status by the time it makes landfall. Tropical Storm Warnings stretch across all of the Texas coast and parts of the western Louisiana coast. A Hurricane Watch is also in effect for portions of the Texas coast as Nicholas continues to strengthen ahead of landfall.

nicholas warnings and watches
nicholas warnings and watches(KSWO)

Once Nicholas makes landfall, it will weaken into a Tropical Depression as it is expected to move eastward following a relatively zonal atmospheric flow.

nicholas path
nicholas path(KSWO)

Other Tropical Disturbances

A couple tropical disturbances are starting to coalesce across the Atlantic Ocean. Some disorganized showers and storms close to the Bahamas have a moderate chance of forming into a Tropical Depression once it moves north and reaches the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. Meanwhile, another disturbance just off the coast of Africa has a high likelihood of forming into a Tropical Depression once it gets out further into the open, warm Atlantic Ocean waters.

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bahamas invest(KSWO)
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