Two Storm Systems to Bring Severe Weather to Texoma - Timing and Potential Impacts

A round of storms Sunday night and another round Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning.
Texoma Storm Potential
Texoma Storm Potential(KSWO)
Published: Oct. 7, 2021 at 7:52 PM CDT
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LAWTON, Okla. (KSWO) -

The potential for severe storms in Southwest Oklahoma and North Central Texas is returning this weekend and into next week.

We remain in a warming trend Friday and Saturday with temperatures topping out in the mid 90s with plenty of sunshine and even some potential fire weather. On Sunday, the strong ridging from the high pressure system in Texas will move off to the east, with a change in our weather pattern for the next several days. The first of two troughs follows the ridging and a cold front will approach Texoma Sunday afternoon.

Texoma Storm Set Up - Sunday PM
Texoma Storm Set Up - Sunday PM(KSWO)

This will allow for the development of convection along a dry line mixing with a Pacific front closer to the I-35 corridor through the evening hours, bringing us our first chance for severe weather. Showers and storms will startup late Sunday night and last through early Monday morning. The line of storms are expected to increase in strength as they progress eastward. The main threat Sunday Night is damaging winds and large hail. A brief spin-up can’t be ruled out, while a non-zero tornado threat will be in place. Expect strong-to-severe storms to be isolated throughout the night.

Region of Severe Storm Potential - Sunday PM
Region of Severe Storm Potential - Sunday PM(KSWO)
Potential Spin Ups Possible Sunday
Potential Spin Ups Possible Sunday(KSWO)

The strength and specific location of the storms development will depend heavily on where the moisture in the mid levels of the atmosphere goes. Models currently have most of the moisture to the north and east of the Red River, pushing our storm zone from a Hobart-Vernon line and eastward. However, storms will become better organized along and east of I-44. How far west the moisture get will determine how many severe storms we could see across Texoma. Moisture allows for more instability in the mid levels of the atmosphere, leading to the formation of strong storms.

Moisture Model - Sunday PM
Moisture Model - Sunday PM(KSWO)

By Monday morning, dry air will overtake any additional convection from occurring which will aid in a return in sunshine. The second system is still 5-6 days away from impacting Texoma, thus making it more difficult to determine the exact timing that storms could develop, but we do know the upper level low that arrives on Tuesday/Wednesday looks to be stronger than the first as it approaches from the west. This will bring another cold front along with a line of showers and storms ahead of it. Some models show isolated storms popping up midday Tuesday, while others show all precipitation holding off until the overnight hours into Wednesday. The timing of this is again to be determined by how much moisture returns to Texoma after a brief dry slot arrives late Monday afternoon, as well as the exact timing of the cold front and exit region of the trough ahead of the low pressure.

Texoma Storm Set Up - Tuesday/Wednesday
Texoma Storm Set Up - Tuesday/Wednesday(KSWO)

Tuesday evening and into Wednesday we will see an increase in showers and thunderstorms compared to Sunday night. The second trough is anticipated to bring a higher amount of wind shear, and with warm air advection on Tuesday morning this will bring favorable conditions for severe thunderstorm development across the Southern Plains by Tuesday evening and early Wednesday morning. At the moment, all modes of severe weather is possible. This includes damaging wind gusts, large hail. localized flooding and even the potential for isolated tornadoes.

Region of Severe Storm Potential - Tuesday/Wednesday
Region of Severe Storm Potential - Tuesday/Wednesday(KSWO)
More Tornado Potential Tuesday/Wednesday
More Tornado Potential Tuesday/Wednesday(KSWO)

As we go throughout the next several days, weather forecasts and timing of the storms will change as Sunday and Tuesday approach.

Severe Weather Tips
Severe Weather Tips(KSWO)

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