First Alert Forecast (10/24 PM)

Published: Oct. 24, 2021 at 6:01 PM CDT
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LAWTON, Okla. (KSWO) -

Tonight will be mostly clear with lows in the low 50s and winds out of the northeast at 5-10 mph. The cold front that moved through today will have moved off to the east of Texoma by the nighttime hours, with any rain chances associated with it popping-up in eastern Oklahoma.

Tomorrow will be much cooler than today due to the passage of the cold front bringing in cooler and drier air. Temperatures will still be slightly above average in the upper 70s and low 80s along with mostly sunny skies.

A high pressure ridge will build across the southern plains on Monday and the first half of the day on Tuesday. This combined with pre-frontal warming will warm temperatures on Tuesday back up to the upper 80s. Tuesday afternoon will see a potent upper-level trough and low pressure system move on from the west. Abundant gulf moisture will be pumping into Texoma in the wake of the high pressure ridge, along with a large amount of atmospheric energy, will both provide ingredients needed for convection and strong-to-severe weather Tuesday night as a cold front associated with the low pressure system moves across Texoma.

A First Alert Weather Day has been issued for Tuesday night into Wednesday, as we can expect all modes of severe weather with a squall line of strong showers and thunderstorms, as well as the possibility for embedded supercells and QLCS (Quasi-Linear Convective Systems) ahead of the moving cold front. Storms look to fire up in our western counties a couple hours after sunset, sometime around 7:00pm/8:00pm. This looks to be a slower moving cold front, as it will take the entire night for the storms to traverse Texoma. The squall line should be approaching I-44 near Lawton and Wichita Falls sometime after midnight around 2:00am. Around 8:00am is when we can predict the cold front and main line of showers and thunderstorms to leave Texoma as they move east of I-35. Timing is based off of current models, and we could see a shift in timing by maybe an hour or two as models become more accurate over the next couple of days. Severe weather threats include isolated tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, large hail, and heavy rainfall that could lead to localized flooding. All areas in Texoma should expect to see rainfall and potentially severe weather Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

The rest of the day on Wednesday could see a few lingering showers, but will otherwise be dry. Temperatures will cool down to near average for this time of year with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s. Rain chances will continue to be low through the night on Wednesday, with no more rain expected by Thursday morning.

Sunny skies and drier weather will stay in place for the back half of this week into next weekend. Elevated fire weather conditions are in place for western Oklahoma and north Texas on Wednesday and Thursday as drier air fills in behind the cold front as well as gusty winds between 20-30 mph out of the northwest.

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