First Alert Forecast- A Fickle Front(s?)

A front later this week looks to drop temperatures a few degrees and bring some clouds to our skies.
Published: Oct. 2, 2022 at 6:05 PM CDT
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LAWTON, Okla. (KSWO) - I mentioned earlier a brief period of warming over the next couple days preceding our first October cold front on Thursday. But, nature is fickle, and much like the fly that won’t leave me alone as I write this, things appear to be a tad bit up in the air.

For one, it appears that the front stalls a bit, sidling in later Thursday and into Friday... on some models. Others have it right on time late Wednesday, early Thursday morning. There is also the appearance of a second minor boundary Friday night into Saturday... on some models. Again, things are a bit wobbly at the moment, but some outcomes show any further boundaries dribbling out before arrival.

My money is on the following scenario: Front #1 stalls. Tomorrow, with highs in the mid 80s and sunny skies, begins the pre-frontal warming period, where our daily highs will progressively get warmer and warmer, topping out at upper 80s and maybe even a stray 90 or two on Thursday rather than peak warming being Wednesday. Temps drop to the low 80s Friday, before Front #2, a minor secondary boundary, brings temps down a hair to the upper 70s for Saturday.

The rest of the details stay the same: sunny skies through Thursday, transitioning to partly cloudy. Winds remain from the south/southeast ranging 5-15 mph.

Regardless of when the cooldown happens, or if it it’s two defined boundaries or one sloppy one, the approach of true, genuine fall weather gets me excited!

-First Alert Student Meteorologist Collin Mertz