First Alert Forecast (11/2 AM)

First Alert Forecast 11/2 AM
Published: Nov. 2, 2022 at 6:34 AM CDT
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LAWTON, Okla. (KSWO) -

Good morning! Moisture content is now increasing in the atmosphere across the Southern Plains, allowing for higher dewpoints and the increase of cloud coverage this morning. Clouds will clear this afternoon as temperatures will once again rise back into the mid/upper 70s. Winds will be breezing out of the south at 10-20 mph, with gusts up to 25-30 mph for some areas.

Tonight expect clouds to build back in with partly-to-mostly cloudy coverage and temperatures only falling down to the low 50s by tomorrow morning. Dewpoints will be very close to the air temperature, so areas that see calmer winds could have fog developing to start off the day on Thursday.

All that influx of atmospheric moisture, combined with other factors, will lead to a setup that could allow for numerous showers and storms to develop during the nighttime hours on Thursday. Prior to that, mostly cloudy and overcast conditions will dominate the skies along with the chance for widely isolated showers throughout the day. Winds will be out of the south at 10-20 mph, with wind gusts up to 25-30 mph, once again warming temperatures up to the mid-upper 70s.

Ahead of a sweeping cold front from the west, showers and storms will fire-up as early as late in the night on Thursday in the Texas panhandle and far western counties in Texoma. Based on current models, the best time to see these storms move into Southwest Oklahoma will be during the early morning hours on Friday. Ingredients are in place for strong-to-severe weather to develop within a line of thunderstorms, but whether all this factors will come together at the same time to produce severe storms is still up in the air. If severe weather does flair up, hazards will include damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph, large hail, and we can’t rule out the possibility for a couple embedded spin-up tornadoes. The storms will continue to push east throughout the morning hours, making their way to I-44 by around midday, and clearing out of Texoma by the mid afternoon. Coverage and intensity of storms is still uncertain depending on how much inhibition is present in the atmosphere during the time frame that storms are expected to fire up, as well as the timing and progression of the cold front. We will be able to give more concise details as the upper-level low out west inches closer to the Southern Plains.

Once the cold front sweeps through on Friday, clouds will clear and allow for clear conditions that evening. Temperatures will only top out in the low 70s on Friday. Saturday will get as high as the mid/upper 60s, though tons of sunshine this weekend combined with a rapid return of southerly winds will get us back into the mid/upper 70s early next week.