First Alert Forecast (11/4 AM)

First Alert Forecast 11/4 AM
Published: Nov. 4, 2022 at 6:36 AM CDT
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LAWTON, Okla. (KSWO) -

Good morning! Storms are already starting to fire up along and slightly ahead of a cold front, and will progress across our western and central counties this morning. Some hail will be possible with the initial storms, though the severe threat is low for western counties. Once the sun rises, the low-level jet will weaken and will briefly decrease the intensity of any storms that develop across central Texoma.

By noontime, the cold front and storms will approach I-44. Thunderstorms will re-initiate as they interact with an area of higher instability, increasing the severity of strong storms for counties almost exclusively east of the interstate. All modes of severe weather will be possible, including gusty winds up to 60-70 mph, hail up to the size of half-dollars, as well as the threat for some embedded rotation that could potentially lead to a couple weak tornadoes. Those at risk for these strong-to-severe storms are areas east of a Lawton-Wichita Falls line that extends north and south across Texoma.

By the late afternoon, the cold front and any remaining storms will move east of Texoma, eliminating the severe storms threat. A few lingering showers will be present behind the front, with most drying out heading into the evening. Temperatures will stay steady today in the upper 60s and low 70s with winds out of the south-to-north at 10-20 mph. Tonight’s skies will be mostly clear with winds out of the west at 5-15 mph and cold temperatures by sunrise on Saturday morning in the mid/upper 30s.

A very nice weekend ahead with tons of sunshine on both Saturday and Sunday. Highs on Saturday will only warm up to the mid/upper 60s, though we will see a quick warm-up in temperatures into the mid/upper 70s on Sunday. On Monday, temperatures will even rise back up to the low 80s for portions of Texoma. Moisture will start funneling back into the Southerly Plains due to upper-level zonal flow, providing the chance for a few rain showers on Monday as clouds begin to slowly build back in. Mostly cloudy skies by midweek as temperatures will still be above-average in the mid 70s. By late next week, a deepening trough will bring our next round of showers and storms, along with what looks to be a significant cooldown, though there is a lot of model disagreement at this time.