Low storm chances Thursday, extreme fire danger Friday | 3/29PM

It looks like most will miss out on beneficial rainfall that could help reduce the fire danger concerns on Friday
Published: Mar. 29, 2023 at 4:34 PM CDT
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LAWTON, Okla. (KSWO) - While this Wednesday has seen mostly sunny skies cloud cover will increase overnight from south to north. Winds will be out of the south at 10 to 15mph. Temperatures by daybreak Thursday will be in the upper 40s to low 50s.

The cloudy skies will limit some daytime heating tomorrow but highs will rise into the upper 60s to low 70s despite the cloud cover. It’ll be breezy with south winds increasing to 15 to 25mph. Anticipated wind gusts in the upper 30s. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will be transported over Texoma thanks to the south winds. While moisture is going to be present, overall storm develop is going to be low and it looks like most will stay dry. With that said, IF storms develop, wind profiles suggest the storm type would be supercell-like. The strongest storms will contain large hail for any/all afternoon storms.

Into the evening and overnight, the cap (stable, dry air aloft) will build back in (sometime around midnight). This will lead to a lull in activity but there’s a possibility that storms could fire up by daybreak for areas closest to highway-81. Unfortunately I think that most will miss out on beneficial rainfall that could help reduce the fire danger concerns on Friday.

Let’s talk about that threat. Relative humidity during the afternoon will drop below 10 percent for many locations. Wind gusts are also going to be in the mid 50s for a short period of time (roughly 11AM-6PM). The mostly sunny skies along with high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s plus the winds/ low relative humidity are going to contribute to extreme fire danger concerns. A fire weather watch will be in place for counties along and west of I-44. Given the conditions, any fires that develop could spread rapidly and outdoor burning is strongly discouraged!!

A brief intrusion of cooler air will be overhead for Saturday with highs falling into the low 70s. Look for a mix of sun and clouds and light winds. If you enjoy the warm, dry and mostly sunny weather than you’ll definitely enjoy Sunday. Another pattern shift of warm weather quickly builds back in as we’ll soar into the low 80s. Partly cloudy skies with south winds at 10 to 20mph. Anticipated wind gusts in the low 30s.

Fire danger will be the biggest concern next week with most days in the near critical to critical status. The good news, the weather will be great with highs in the upper to low 80s respectively for Monday and Tuesday of next week. The bad news, strong wind gusts will accompany the warm and mostly sunny weather.

Have a great Thursday! -LW