Warming trend begins today with return of southerly winds | 3/29 AM

Warming trend begins today with return of southerly winds | 3/29 AM
Published: Mar. 29, 2023 at 6:51 AM CDT
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LAWTON, Okla. (KSWO) -

Good morning! Some light rain showers are present across North Texas this morning, and should clear out shortly after sunrise. Partly cloudy conditions along and south of the Red River until midday, giving way for mostly sunny skies this afternoon (Southwest Oklahoma will see mostly sunny skies through most of the daytime hours). Winds will pick back up out of the south at 10-15 mph, and combined with the sunshine, will lead to near-average and average high temperatures today in the upper 60s and low 70s.

Clear skies are expected this evening and overnight, though increased low & upper level moisture will cause overcast skies to build back in early tomorrow morning. Winds will be out of the south as temperatures will only drop to the upper 40s and low 50s tomorrow morning.

Isolated-to-scattered showers and storms will begin popping-up across Texoma sometime in the afternoon on Thursday. Coverage will be on-&-off and sporadic heading into the evening and overnight hours, so not everyone will see rain. The environment will have the ingredients in place for strong-to-severe weather, though it all depends on if stable atmospheric conditions will erode enough to allow for storms to evolve and tower-up. If severe storms develop, all hazards will be possible but the main concern with any supercell-like storms will be large hail up to golf balls and the isolated risk for tornadoes. Outside of the rain, temperatures will top out in the upper 60s and low 70s with winds out of the south at 10-20 mph, gusting up to 30 mph.

A few of us in our far eastern counties could see some isolated showers and storms during the morning hours on Friday, but will be clearing out to the east by midday as Texoma will be in the wake of a cold front/dryline system. The movement of an upper-level trough and low pressure system just to our north on Friday will create a tight pressure gradient; what that means for us is that winds will be really breezy that afternoon. Winds will whip out of the west at 20-30 mph, with wind gusts up to 40-50 mph. This combined with very low relative humidity values will lead to critical fire weather conditions for most of Texoma on Friday afternoon. Fire weather watches have already been issued for western counties in anticipation for it, and will likely be upgraded to a red flag warning prior to midday on Friday. Temperatures will soar into the upper 70s and low 80s that afternoon with sunny skies.

We will cool off slightly back down to average-for-this-time-of-year temperatures in the low 70s on Saturday with partly cloudy skies. Near critical fire weather conditions return on Sunday with winds out of the south at 10-20 mph, temperatures rising into the low 80s, and partly cloudy skies. An isolated chance for a few light showers is possible on the final day of the weekend.

Near-critical and critical fire weather dangers will stick around on Monday and Tuesday of next week, as both will features breezy southerly winds (and strong wind gusts), dry air, sunny skies, and well-above average temperatures in the 80s (with Monday even approaching the 90-degree mark).