Severe storms this evening but not overnight | 9/19PM

Severe storms this evening but not overnight
Published: Sep. 19, 2023 at 4:42 PM CDT
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LAWTON, Okla. (KSWO) - All hazards are on the table this evening. Daytime heating (sunshine and temperatures in the 90s) are eroding away the dry air aloft (the cap). With a dryline set up to the west, an area of low pressure circulating just south of Dodge City, Kansas plus moisture surging in from the gulf of Mexico (resulting in dewpoints in the mid 60s) all of this is going to come together to create the set up for severe storms. As I mentioned, we’re looking at everything possible this evening.

I do believe the biggest concern will be large hail and damaging winds. With that said, heavy rainfall could lead to localized flooding concerns for some eastern counties as well as a brief spin up or two. Hail on average will be close to golf ball sized and damaging winds gusts look to range between 60 to 80mph. However, the strongest of storms, with an increasing low-level jet (movement of air in the upper-levels), could produce larger hail sizes and stronger wind gusts.

Storms look to iniciate around 6 tonight out west, nearing I-44 between 7-8PM, and exiting Texoma completely around midnight.

Wednesday will be mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 90s. Light south winds at 5 to 15mph.

On Thursday some locations across southwest Oklahoma could see another round of showers and storms producing quarter sized hail and wind gusts up to 60mph. Thursday will be mostly cloudy with highs on either side of 90 degrees. Southeast winds at 10 to 15mph. Anticipated wind gusts in the mid 20s.

Stay weather aware tonight! -LW