High uncertainty tonight in reference to severe storms | 9/21PM

High uncertainty tonight in reference to severe storms
Published: Sep. 21, 2023 at 4:59 PM CDT
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LAWTON, Okla. (KSWO) - To be transparent, tonight’s forecast has a lot of uncertainty and here’s why. All day long we’ve seen more rain than expected along with a lot of cloud cover. This has limited day time heating/ the destabilization of the atmosphere. With the clouds/rain showers today, it’s been using energy from the atmosphere. This leads to the question of IF storms will be able to develop heading into this evening/ overnight. Models have been handling tonight’s event poorly which also doesn’t help in our confidence level. With that said, storms or not, it’s a good idea to be on standby through the night in the event storms develop. If they do, look for quarter sized hail and wind gusts up to 60mph.

Outside of showers and thunderstorms, look for partly cloudy skies overnight with temperatures in the upper 60s. We’ll see a mix of sun and clouds all day long with highs rising into the upper 90s. Wicked isolated showers remain possible tomorrow however the coverage will be low with a weakening low-level jet.

Saturday will see partly cloudy skies with highs also in the upper 90s. The approaching cold front looks to arrive between 3 to 10PM Saturday evening so as a result south to north winds at 10 to 15mph. The cold front could bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday morning for eastern counties. Large hail and damaging winds could accompany the storms along with heavy rain, thunder and lightning.

By Sunday we’ll see a mix of sun and clouds with highs dropping into the low 90s. Northeast winds at 10 to 15mph. One model has more showers and thunderstorms developing Sunday night into Monday morning where another models keep all locations dry. Given the uncertainty, I’ve opted for 20 percent for the time being.

Models are agreeing that next week will be rain free with highs staying in the upper 80s (closer to average but still slightly above) from Monday to Wednesday then the low 90s by Thursday.

Have a great Friday! -LW