Tropics heating up as Tropical Storm Bill expected to develop tonight off the East Coast

LAWTON, Okla. (KSWO) -

The official start to hurricane season kicked off two weeks ago and we are already starting to see the tropics wake up from its several months-long hibernation since the end of the 2020 season. We have already had one named storm in the Atlantic Basin and a few named storms in the Eastern Pacific Basin, and now multiple tropical systems are in the process of developing across the tropics in both oceans.

In the Atlantic ocean basin, we have Tropical Depression Two moving northeast up the east coast of the United States. This tropical system is expected to form into Tropical Storm Bill within the next 24 hours. This system was originally a shortwave trough embedded amidst a larger jet-stream trough that is stretching across most of the eastern U.S., but factors such as warm sea surface temperatures along the east coast both due to the gulf stream and the Bermuda high-pressure pulling warm ocean water from near the equator have allowed this disturbance to form into a tropical depression. This would be the second named tropical storm in the Atlantic basin, with first being tropical storm Ana last month. This storm will get caught up in the larger jet-stream, moving northeast rapidly toward the Canadian east coast and the island of Newfoundland by Wednesday morning.

A collection of showers and thunderstorms surrounding an area of low-pressure in the Bay of Campeche, in the southern Gulf of Mexico, is expected to meander northward as we near the middle of the week. It has yet to form into a tropical system, but has a high chance of doing so within the next 5 days. Sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are very warm, but high wind shear aloft is currently inhibiting development of the tropical disturbance. Whether it forms or not, it will bring warm, moist tropical air to the Texas and Louisiana Gulf coasts, possibly increasing moisture for some parts of Texoma next week.

The only other disturbance currently in the Atlantic basin is moving off the west coast of Africa south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Although sea surface temperatures are warm off the African coast, the system is currently disorganized, and westward-moving dry winds aloft from Saharan dust will limit development of this disturbance as it tracks west across the Atlantic Ocean.

Transitioning over to the Pacific ocean basin, Tropical Depression Carlos has been downgraded from a tropical storm after weakening from moving farther out into the cooler open ocean waters. Also limiting this system is high wind shear aloft ripping the storm apart from the top-down. Tropical Depression Carlos is expected to gradually continue to move west through the next few days before ultimately dissipating in the middle of the Pacific ocean.

Another area of interest in the Eastern Pacific is just off the western coast of Mexico. Tracking northwest and hugging close to the Mexican coast, this area of low pressure is located above very warm coastal waters. It is not expected to form in the next couple days due to wind shear aloft, but as it moves farther northwest, upper-level wind shear will die down, providing favorable conditions for this disturbance to form into a tropical system sometime later this week or this weekend.

This years hurricane season is expected to be an active one compared to the 30-year average. Here’s a look at this seasons hurricane forecast as well as the upcoming names for future storms in the Atlantic ocean basin.

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